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Mounting apprehensions exist regarding the potential of armed conflict among East African neighbours, the Ethiopian government and the Eritrean government, as hostile discourse has escalated in the past few weeks.

What Has Ethiopian Officials Stated?

Landlocked Ethiopia's calls for entry to the Red Sea through Eritrea has sparked a heated rhetorical conflict.

PM Abiy Ahmed first openly declared in 2023 that his government's access to the sea was an vital issue, remarks that Eritrean authorities rejected.

Diplomatic connections between the two countries have frequently been strained. After a long-standing fight for sovereignty, Eritrea, which has a 1,350km (840-mile) Red Sea coastline, formally separated from Ethiopia in the early 1990s, rendering it cut off from the sea.

Subsequently, a border war started in which over a hundred thousand people lost their lives.

Current Statements from Ethiopian Leadership

Abiy and military leader General Birhanu Jula have openly claimed control of Eritrean maritime facility of Assab – about 60km from the border - and implied the wish to take it by force.

In early September, Abiy said the country's "blunder" of being denied passage to the Red Sea as a due to Eritrean independence would be "rectified soon".

The Ethiopian envoy to neighboring Kenya, former General Bacha Debele, said that the port was "Ethiopian property" and would be returned "using武力".

Eritrean Response to the Threats

In the face of persistent threats from Ethiopia, Eritrea's response has been restricted to concise remarks on online platforms from Information Minister Yemane Gebremeskel.

The minister has dismissed Ethiopia's push for sea access labeling it "dangerous" and a "negative policy" of "territorial claims" – a strategy of claiming back previous domains.

Eritrean authorities cautioned on 16 September that attempts to validate "flagrant aggression" would have major implications for the Ethiopian government and its regional partners and is a "boundary that should not be crossed|violated|breached".

Security Activities on the Ground

So far, there are little evidence of significant troop deployments in the border areas between the neighboring states.

Nevertheless, in Ethiopia, government media has displayed completion events of many recruits at various military training camps.

The director of personnel division of the defense force, the officer, commented lately in an discussion that the military was in a "reliable position" as "numerous of youths" were enlisting, which he said was "a signal to our enemies".

Previous Background of the Dispute

For decades from the late 19th century, Eritrea was governed by Italian rulers.

Following Italy's defeat, it was then administered by the UK forces before turning into a associated territory of the Ethiopian empire.

However in 1962 Emperor Haile Selassie I terminated this system and the region became completely integrated into the Ethiopian state.

A extended civil war ensued, ending with Ethiopia's defeat in 1991. Sovereignty was then confirmed by voters in a vote in 1993.

For a few years in the 1990s, there were good relations between the leadership in Ethiopia's capital and Eritrea's capital, but they clashed over the precise positioning of their mutual frontier, causing hostilities in 1998.

Even though this ended in a peace deal in 2000, it was never fully implemented, and the two nations remained at odds.

This ended in 2018, when Abiy made overtures to Eritrea's leader Isaias Afwerki. The both leaders endorsed a declaration that the war was finished – a move that gained the Prime Minister the prestigious award.

The both administrations were then allies in Ethiopia's recent civil war in the northern region.

Yet relations have later worsened again.